Monty Hall StarCraft Scouting Problem

The Monty Hall Problem, as it relates to StarCraft scouting. I was practicing my Terran play the other day, when I realized something profound. I sent an SCV to make a supply depot at 10 supply. When he finished making the depot, I sent him off to scout for the correct location to send my initial reaper. I sent him to the closest starting location, clockwise. This idea assumes we’re on a four player map. Which means we’re occupying one of the starting locations. Meaning our opponent is in one of three locations. Typically, StarCraft players choose to scout either clockwise, or anti clockwise directions, and avoid scouting the diagonal location. Imagine yourself as that first reaper. He wants the prize of an enemy base to harass. But he doesn’t know which direction to go. Isn’t he just like that a gameshow contestant on Let’s Make a Deal? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem He can go to one of three starting locations, and I point him to the other location, the closest starting location counter clockwise. But then your scouting SCV acts just like the game show host, and reveals the scouting location closest clockwise, to be empty. Now your reaper spawns and has an easier choice. He only has two locations left to scout. Where should you send him? And there it is, the Monty Hall problem. Obviously, this doesn’t apply if you see any early hints from your opponent, or if your scouting SCV guesses correctly, or if you’re on a map with more or less starting locations. But on those four player maps where your SCV scouts the wrong way, and then your reaper pops, there it is. The starting location you pointed your reaper to still has a ⅓ chance of being correct. But the other location suddenly (and counterintuitively) has a ⅔ chance of being correct. You should tell your reaper to change his mind and pick that other location. You'll be right more often than not. I think I saw Taeja use this logic during one of scouts. I’d love to hear if someone with more of a background on statistics has anything to add.